Policy neutrality and uncertainty: an info-gap perspective/ Yakov Ben-Haim
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Intelligence and National Security Vol.31, No.7, December 2016, pp.978-992 (99) Summary: This article taking into account of reducing uncertainty as a central goal of intelligence analysis. It can mean: a) reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or b) reduce adverse impacts of ignorance, ambiguity or surprise on decision outcomes. The author highlights that analysts should identify policy options that are robust to uncertainty, and that reducing the impact of uncertainty requires awareness of policymakers' goals. The case study discussed includes the assessment of Iraqi WMD capability in 2002.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal Article | Mindef Library & Info Centre Journals | XX(55047.1) (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Not for loan | 55047-1001 |
This article taking into account of reducing uncertainty as a central goal of intelligence analysis. It can mean: a) reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or b) reduce adverse impacts of ignorance, ambiguity or surprise on decision outcomes. The author highlights that analysts should identify policy options that are robust to uncertainty, and that reducing the impact of uncertainty requires awareness of policymakers' goals. The case study discussed includes the assessment of Iraqi WMD capability in 2002.
IRAQ
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