Policy neutrality and uncertainty: an info-gap perspective/
BEN-HAIM Yakov
Policy neutrality and uncertainty: an info-gap perspective/ Yakov Ben-Haim - 2016
This article taking into account of reducing uncertainty as a central goal of intelligence analysis. It can mean: a) reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or b) reduce adverse impacts of ignorance, ambiguity or surprise on decision outcomes. The author highlights that analysts should identify policy options that are robust to uncertainty, and that reducing the impact of uncertainty requires awareness of policymakers' goals. The case study discussed includes the assessment of Iraqi WMD capability in 2002.
NATIONAL SECURITY
FOREIGN POLICY
INTELLIGENCE SERVICE--METHODOLOGY
IRAQI--WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Policy neutrality and uncertainty: an info-gap perspective/ Yakov Ben-Haim - 2016
This article taking into account of reducing uncertainty as a central goal of intelligence analysis. It can mean: a) reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or b) reduce adverse impacts of ignorance, ambiguity or surprise on decision outcomes. The author highlights that analysts should identify policy options that are robust to uncertainty, and that reducing the impact of uncertainty requires awareness of policymakers' goals. The case study discussed includes the assessment of Iraqi WMD capability in 2002.
NATIONAL SECURITY
FOREIGN POLICY
INTELLIGENCE SERVICE--METHODOLOGY
IRAQI--WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION