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100			_aGAT Azar _eauthor
245			_aIs the decline of war a delusion? The long peace phenomenon and the modernization peace: _bthe explanation that refutes or subsumes all others / _cAzar Gat
260			_c2024
520			_aThe wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the China challenge, revive the question of whether the world is becoming more peaceful. Realists’ claim that we told you so compares oranges with cabbage. Today’s world is divided into a “zone of peace”, encompassing all the developed countries, and a “zone of war”, comprising less developed countries. Within the former, interstate wars, civil wars, and the “security dilemma” itself have all disappeared. The Long Peace since 1945 is widely attributed to nuclear deterrence. However, the sharp decrease in war had begun during the 19th century. The effect of industrialization is the greatest lacuna in IR theory. The Malthusian Trap that plagued premodern societies has been broken. Wealth is no longer finite and a zero-sum game. This transformation has made democracies as well as nondemocracies fight much less, and has sharply increased international trade. It underlies both the democratic/liberal and capitalist/trade interdependence peace.
650			_aDECLINE OF WAR
650			_aZONES OF PEACE AND WAR
650			_aUKRAINE
650			_aCHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
773			_gThe Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 47, Number 6-7, December 2024, 776-800
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2024.2421770 _zClick here for full text
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