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100			_aTALMADGE Caitlin
245			_aThe meaning of China’s nuclear modernization/ _cCaitlin Talmadge
260			_c2023
520			_aWill China’s nuclear modernization threaten U.S. security? Will it destabilize East Asia, creating new strategic problems for U.S. allies and partners? And will it make conventional war more likely by giving China the confidence to act under the cover of advanced nuclear weapons? Despite the centrality of China in debates over contemporary strategy, there is no consensus answer to these questions. This article surveys U.S perspectives on the meaning of China’s nuclear modernization. It describes three competing interpretations, each reflecting a different theory of nuclear strategy: the Nuclear Revolution; Nuclear Superiority; and the Stability-Instability Paradox. We describe the theoretical logic and empirical evidence in support of each claim, and derive future indicators that could help resolve the debate over China’s intentions as more evidence becomes available. This exercise also reveals some counterintuitive views about China’s nuclear efforts and the prospects for conventional war. The conclusion discusses the implications for theory and policy.
598			_aCHINA, NUCLEAR, ASIA, NEWARTICLS
650			_aNUCLEAR _zCHINA
700			_aROVNER Joshua
773			_gThe Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 46, Number 6-7, December 2023, page: 1116-1148
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2023.2212871 _zClick here for full text
942			_2ddc _cARTICLE _n0
999			_c47081 _d47081