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100			_aCHOULIS Ioannis
245			_aArms racing, military build-ups and dispute intensity: _bevidence from the Greek-Turkish rivalry, 1985-2020/ _cIoannis Choulis, Marius Mehrl and Kostas Ifantis
260			_c2022
520			_aArms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute.
598			_aTERRITORIAL DISPUTES, INTERSTATE RIVALRY, GREECE, TURKEY, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, NEWARTICLS
650			_aTERRITORIAL DISPUTE _xINTERSTATE RIVALRY _xMILITARY EXPENDITURES _zGREECE _zTURKEY
700			_aMEHRL Marius
700			_aIFANTIS Kostas
773			_gDefence and Peace Economics, Volume 33, Number 7, November 2022, page: 779-804
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242694.2021.1933312 _zClick here for full text
942			_2ddc _cARTICLE _n0
999			_c47048 _d47048