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100 1 _aLEE Geunwook
245 _aA Russian bear in trouble, what comes next?
_bconsequences and lessons from Putin's invasion of Ukraine/
_cGeunwook Lee
260 _c2022
520 _aRussia is losing its war in Ukraine as of January 2023. Then, what would happen in the world when a Russian bear in trouble? What would be consequences of the apparent failure of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Russia is likely to lose its semi-great power status out of its defeat and fall to be China's junior partner in great power politics. China's position will improve because Beijing will come to secure energy supply from Russia and access to Moscow's military technologies, not to mention to China's access to Russian market. The United States, in contrast, will be faced with two great power rivals and find it difficult to stay focused in strategic competition. North Korea is likely to be controlled rather than emboldened by China, but Beijing will take advantage of Pyongyang as its strategic pawn in its strategic design against Taipei and Washington in East Asia.
650 _aUKRAINE WAR
650 _aRUSSIA
650 _aCHINA
650 _aTHE UNITED STATES
650 _aSTRATEGIC COMPETITION
_xTHUCYDIDES TRAP
773 _aThe Journal of East Asian Affairs: Vol 35 No.2, Autumn/Winter 2022, pp.73-94 (35)
598 _aUKRAINE, WARFARE, RUSSIA, CHINA, USA
856 _uhttp://inss.re.kr/common/viewer.do?atchFileId=F20230313170934245&fileSn=0
_zClick here for full text
945 _i69518.1001
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999 _c42575
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