000			01613cam a2200217 4500
100	1		_aMOYER Jonathan D.
700			_aMEISEL Collin J.
700			_aMATTHEWS Austin S.
245			_aMeasuring and forecasting the rise of China: _breality over image/ _cJonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel & Austin S. Matthews
260			_c2023
520			_aThe rise of Chinese capabilities relative to those of the United States has received widespread attention. Some argue that a transition in relative capabilities has already occurred, others that it is unlikely within this century. This article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative national capabilities and forecasts using the International Futures model across 29 alternative scenarios. This article finds that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.
650			_aPOWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: FROM CONCEPT TO MEASUREMENT
650			_aQUANTIFYING RELATIVE NATIONAL CAPABILITIES
650			_aTHE DIME INDEX
650			_aTHE FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS
650			_aUNITED STATES AND CHINA
773			_aJournal Of Contemporary China : _gVol.32, No. 140, January 2023, pp.191-206 (102)
598			_aCHINA, USA, POLICY
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879 _zClick here for full text
945			_i69479.1001 _rY _sY
999			_c42539 _d42539