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100 1 _aTONNESSON Stein
700 _aOO Min Zaw
700 _aAUNG Ne Lynn
245 _aNon-inclusive ceasefires do not bring peace:
_bfindings from Myanmar/
_cStein Tønnesson, Min Zaw Oo & Ne Lynn Aung
260 _c2022
520 _aBased on conflict data, interviews and media monitoring, this study of Myanmar's non-inclusive ceasefires develops a four-step argument about the effect of ceasefires in complex conflict systems. First, non-state armed groups rarely co-ordinate their actions strategically. This makes it easy for governments to obtain ceasefires with some groups while fighting others. Second, when ceasefires ensure armed groups' survival, they mostly hold. Third, non-inclusive ceasefires do not reduce a country's overall level of violence, since fighting tends to escalate with excluded groups. On this basis we conclude that non-inclusive ceasefires do not present a viable alternative to an inclusive peace process.
650 _aMYANMAR
650 _aCEASEFIRE
650 _aPEACE AGREEMENTS
650 _aARMED CONFLICT
650 _aARMED POLITICS
773 _aSmall Wars & Insurgencies:
_gVol. 33, No.3, April 2022, pp. 313-349 (97)
598 _aBURMA, PROXYWAR, CONFLICT, POLITICS
856 _uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09592318.2021.1991141
_zClick here for full text
945 _i69355.1001
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999 _c42428
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