000			01593cam a2200193 4500
100	1		_aCROCKER Chester A.
245			_aEndings and surprises of the Russia-Ukraine War/ _cChester A. Crocker
260			_c2022
520			_aIt is unclear how the Russia-Ukraine war will unfold in the east or the south, or how recent Ukrainian successes will affect Russia's future course. However the war eventually ends, it will have fundamental implications for global order. It is important, therefore, to imagine how it might end, with special attention paid to the potential for strategic surprises. Despite Ukraine's stunning victories in the east, a continuing war of attrition could resume. Another possibility is a 'frozen' conflict. The most promising scenario involves a negotiated settlement based on effectively monitored peace terms registered in an internationally based political agreement. Major and regional powers, non-official actors and international institutions may have roles to play. The United Nations Security Council could be key in legitimising a political settlement and monitoring its implementation.
650			_aRUSSIA _zUKRAINE
650			_aNATO
650			_aATTRITION _xEUROPEAN UNION
650			_aFROZEN CONFLICTS _xSTRATEGIC SURPRISE
650			_aUN SECURITY COUNCIL _xCONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES
773			_aSurvival: _gVol.64, No.5, October-November 2022, pp.183-192 (106)
598			_aRUSSIA, UKRAINE, NATO, CONFLICT, EU
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2022.2127518 _zClick here for full text
945			_i69254.1001 _rY _sY
999			_c42338 _d42338