000			01871cam a2200193 4500
100	1		_aFARZANEGAN Mohammad Reza
245			_aThe economic cost of the islamic revolution and war for Iran: _bsynthetic counterfactual evidence/ _cMohammad Reza Farzanegan
260			_c2022
520			_aThis study estimates the joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq, on Iran's per capita Gross Domestic Product ('GDP,' constant 2010 US$) for the period 1978-1988, during the revolution/war. I use a synthetic control approach, whereby a synthetic Iran is constructed as a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa ('MENA')/Organization of the Petroleum Exporting ('OPEC') countries to match the average level of some key per capita GDP correlates over the period 1970-1977 as well as the evolution of the actual Iranian per capita GDP during that period. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The average Iranian lost an accumulated sum of approximately US$ 34,660 during 1978-1988 (i.e. the average annual real per capita income loss of US$ 3,150). This loss equals 40% of the real income per capita, which an Iranian could earn in the absence of revolution and war. The confidence sets based on constant, linear, and uniform assumptions of treatment effect show that estimated income loss for Iran is sizeable and statistically significant. The results remain robust to a set of placebo tests.
650			_aSYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD
650			_aTREATMENT EFFECT
650			_aIRAN _zIRAQ _xWAR
650			_aCONFLICT
650			_aREVOLUTION
773			_aDefence and Peace Economics: _gVol 33, No. 2, March 2022, pp.129-149
598			_aIRAN, IRAQ, ECONOMICS, POLITICS, CONFLICT, ISLAMIC
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242694.2020.1825314 _zClick here for full text
945			_i69120.1001 _rY _sY
999			_c42216 _d42216