000			01429cam a2200181 4500
100	1		_aGROMES Thorsten
700			_aRANFT Florian
245			_aPreventing civil war recurrence: _bdo military victories really perform better than peace agreements? Causal Claim and Underpinning Assumptions Revisited/ _cThorsten Gromes & Florian Ranft
260			_c2021
520			_aExisting research suggests that peace is more stable after military victories than it is after peace agreements. This article challenges this conventional wisdom. By applying survival analysis, we demonstrate that peace agreements exhibit just as strong of a relationship to enduring peace as military victories do. Moreover, we investigate the assumptions that underpin the aforementioned claim. These assumptions link peace survival to the type of civil war termination and refer to intervening variables. Using time-series data for 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009, the empirical analysis finds support for only two underpinning assumptions in favour of victories.
650			_aMILITARY VICTORIES _xPEACE AGREEMENTS
650			_aCIVIL WAR OUTCOME AND CIVIL WAR RECURRENCE
650			_aMILITARY IMBALANCE
773			_aCivil Wars : _gVol.23, No.4, December 2021, pp.612-636 (110)
598			_aMILITARY
856			_uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13698249.2022.2004043 _zClick here for full text
945			_i69074.1001 _rY _sY
999			_c42168 _d42168