000 00984cam a2200193 4500
020 _a0936015632 (hbk.)
100 1 _aJEANES Ike
245 0 _aForecast and solution:
_bgrappling with the nuclear, a trilogy for everyone
260 _aBlacksburg:
_bPocanontas Press Inc.,
_c1996
300 _a770p.
520 3 _aThe peacefulness of nations is condensed into a simple measurement: reluctance level. Then, Formula K is used to determine how long nuclear peace would tend to continue at different levels of peacefulness. The method is supported by analysis of conventional wars and shows how to predict wars of different sizes. Proliferation's influence on nuclear peace, the potential for accidental nuclear use and the ineffectiveness of nuclear deterrence are also examined.
650 _aCONVENTIONAL WARFARE
650 _aDETERRENCE
650 _aFORECASTS
650 _aMATHEMATICAL MODELS
650 _aNUCLEAR WARFARE
650 _aPROLIFERATION
945 _i0007524
_rY
_sY
999 _c40986
_d40986