Clashes at sea: Explaining the onset, militarization, and resolution of diplomatic maritime claims/ Sara McLaughlin Mitchell

China's maritime conflicts with neighboring states (for example, Senkaku/Diaoyu, Spratly Islands) have generated over a dozen militarized clashes at sea since 1991. Confrontations in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine in November 2018 created similar concerns about the escalation of the situation to interstate war. Maritime diplomatic clashes are frequent; the Issue Correlates of War Project identifies 270 dyadic diplomatic claims over maritime areas globally from 1900 to 2010, with close to a third of these disagreements becoming militarized. This paper explores why countries experience diplomatic disagreements over maritime zones, why some maritime claims are militarized, and how countries can peacefully resolve these conflicts. Unlike territorial disputes, maritime conflicts are more likely to occur between democratic, developed states and are more successfully settled through multilateral institutions.

CHINA