The active management of uncertainty / Belinda Canton
Material type:
TextPublication details: 2008Subject(s):
In:
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Vol 21 No 3, Fall 2008, pp.487-518 (117)Summary: Argues that analysts should give as much attention to uncertainty as they currently do to matters of substance. Outlines what this means in practice for analytical procedures, uses Iraq 2002 as a case study to illustrate the uncertainty model, and suggests that recent efforts by the CIA, the DIA and other agencies to enhance analytic training will have little effect if uncertainty is ignored.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal Article | Mindef Library & Info Centre Journals | INTELLIGENCE SERVICES (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Not for loan | 24672-1001 |
Argues that analysts should give as much attention to uncertainty as they currently do to matters of substance. Outlines what this means in practice for analytical procedures, uses Iraq 2002 as a case study to illustrate the uncertainty model, and suggests that recent efforts by the CIA, the DIA and other agencies to enhance analytic training will have little effect if uncertainty is ignored.
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