TY  - BOOK
AU  - PRESS Daryl G
TI  - Calculating credibility: how leaders assess military threats 
SN  - 9780801443435 (hbk) :
PY  - 2005///
CY  - Ithaca NY
PB  - Cornell Univ Press
KW  - INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
KW  - RISK ASSESSMENT
KW  - THREAT ASSESSMENT
KW  - MILITARY THREATS
KW  - MILITARY CAPABILITY
N2  - Uses three different crises (German assessment of British and French credibility in 1938-39; British and American assessments of Soviet credibility over the Berlin crisis 1958-61; and American assessment of Soviet credibility over the Cuban missile crisis 1962) to try to understand how leaders assess whether the threats emanating from an adversary are credible or not. Considers four different theories or approaches of credibility: past actions, current calculus, ingrained lessons; and never again. Finds that past actions are not a good indicator whereas threats backed by power and serving clear interests are considered more believable
ER  -