TY  - BOOK
AU  - KNIGHTS Michael
TI  - Losing ground: the future of central government in Iraq 
PY  - 2007///
KW  - IRAQ
KW  - GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
KW  - RISK ASSESSMENT
N2  - Despite American plans Iraq's central government appears to be losing ground compared with local powerbrokers. This article provides an overview then presents and analyses three scenarios for development in 2007: a) central government recovers some degree of authority; b) there is a de facto partition with the key dynamics being between the various armed sub-state groups; c) collapse of central government. Scenario B is considered most likely. The article includes Jane's country risk model for Iraq
ER  -