How to predict the unpredictable: on the early detection of terrorist campaigns
- 2005
"After a brief description of the concepts of terrorism and early detection, this article outlines a model for the early detection of terrorist campaigns, looking at long-term and middle-term preconditions (root and proximate casues), as well as short-term precipitants, in order to uncover underlying structures that enable and facilitate terrorist campaigns." (from author's introduction). A table on p.381 summarises causes of terrorist campaigns, actions that will accelerate or slow them down, and actions that can precipitate them.