Forecast and solution: grappling with the nuclear, a trilogy for everyone
- Blacksburg: Pocanontas Press Inc., 1996
- 770p.
The peacefulness of nations is condensed into a simple measurement: reluctance level. Then, Formula K is used to determine how long nuclear peace would tend to continue at different levels of peacefulness. The method is supported by analysis of conventional wars and shows how to predict wars of different sizes. Proliferation's influence on nuclear peace, the potential for accidental nuclear use and the ineffectiveness of nuclear deterrence are also examined.