CANTON Belinda

The active management of uncertainty / Belinda Canton - 2008

Argues that analysts should give as much attention to uncertainty as they currently do to matters of substance. Outlines what this means in practice for analytical procedures, uses Iraq 2002 as a case study to illustrate the uncertainty model, and suggests that recent efforts by the CIA, the DIA and other agencies to enhance analytic training will have little effect if uncertainty is ignored.


INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
UNCERTAINTY