The problem of uncertainty in strategic planning / Michael Fitzsimmons
Material type:
TextPublication details: 2006Subject(s):
In:
Survival Vol.48, No 4, Winter 2006-2007, pp.131-146 (106)Summary: Summarises the problems of uncertainty in strategic planning. At one extreme assuming the level of uncertainty is so great leads to the conclusion that planning is impossible, at the other assumptions are made about a particular outcome and this is planned for carefully - although it may turn out to be wrong. A middle ground suggests planning for a range of futures that will meet the most likely ones but can still be adapted to meet others. The paper argues that recent U.S. strategy has placed too much emphasis on uncertainty, whereas Clausewitz's "standard of judgement" should be applied to discriminate between assumptions, but ultimately assumptions must be made.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal Article | Mindef Library & Info Centre Journals | MILITARY ART & SCIENCE (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Not for loan | 21288-1001 |
Summarises the problems of uncertainty in strategic planning. At one extreme assuming the level of uncertainty is so great leads to the conclusion that planning is impossible, at the other assumptions are made about a particular outcome and this is planned for carefully - although it may turn out to be wrong. A middle ground suggests planning for a range of futures that will meet the most likely ones but can still be adapted to meet others. The paper argues that recent U.S. strategy has placed too much emphasis on uncertainty, whereas Clausewitz's "standard of judgement" should be applied to discriminate between assumptions, but ultimately assumptions must be made.
There are no comments on this title.