Past present and future China: from semi-colony to world power/ James Petras

This article raises serious methodological, conceptual, historical and empirical questions concerning the notion of China as the next world superpower. This article focusses on a more basic question: what is the character of the principle units of analysis responsible for this expansion and how do they project into the future. The second section of the article provides a schematic historical analysis of the stages of Chinese development, focusing on the continuities, ruptures, transitions and projections over the past half century. The third section focus on the performance of the Chinese political economy. The fourth section focusses on the impact of deepening liberalization on the economic and class structure. The fifth section discusses the external political, economic and military threats and challenges. The final section provides overview of the future trajectory of China's development.