How to predict the unpredictable: on the early detection of terrorist campaigns

By: Material type: TextTextPublication details: 2005Subject(s): In: Defense and Security Analysis Vol 21 No 4, December 2005, pp.369-386 (94)Summary: "After a brief description of the concepts of terrorism and early detection, this article outlines a model for the early detection of terrorist campaigns, looking at long-term and middle-term preconditions (root and proximate casues), as well as short-term precipitants, in order to uncover underlying structures that enable and facilitate terrorist campaigns." (from author's introduction). A table on p.381 summarises causes of terrorist campaigns, actions that will accelerate or slow them down, and actions that can precipitate them.
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"After a brief description of the concepts of terrorism and early detection, this article outlines a model for the early detection of terrorist campaigns, looking at long-term and middle-term preconditions (root and proximate casues), as well as short-term precipitants, in order to uncover underlying structures that enable and facilitate terrorist campaigns." (from author's introduction). A table on p.381 summarises causes of terrorist campaigns, actions that will accelerate or slow them down, and actions that can precipitate them.

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