Putin's preventive war/ Barry R. Posen
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TextPublication details: 2024Subject(s):
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International Security, Winter 2024/2025, Volume 49, Number 3, pg. 7-49Summary: The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine matches the logic of preventive war, when states fear the consequences of a shifting balance of military power and strike to forestall it. This essay argues that Vladimir Putin likely viewed Russia’s strategic situation through a preventive war frame. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.
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The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine matches the logic of preventive war, when states fear the consequences of a shifting balance of military power and strike to forestall it. This essay argues that Vladimir Putin likely viewed Russia’s strategic situation through a preventive war frame. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.
RUSSIAN INVASION, PREVENTIVE WAR, BALANCE OF POWER, NEWARTICLS
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