Shadows of power beneath the threshold: Where covert action, organized crime and irregular warfare converge/ Magda Long

This article examines the intricate interplay between covert action, organized crime and irregular warfare, emphasizing their collective impact on international security. Through an examination of two case studies – Serbia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia under Slobodan Milosevic and Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 – the article reveals a recurring pattern of states deploying organized crime networks integrated within their governance structures to covertly influence populations and erode the legitimacy of target states for strategic advantage. It challenges the notion that these tactics represent a ‘new hybrid playbook’, arguing instead that they are an extension of strategies pioneered in the 1990s by regimes like Belgrade’s. The fusion of state power and organized crime obscures the distinctions between legitimate governance and criminality, creating a potent force in hybrid warfare broadly that is both deniable and highly effective. The case studies also underscore the importance of reassessing the role of organized crime in state-sponsored covert actions, offering new insights for policymakers and scholars grappling with contemporary security challenges. The article contributes to the broader field of security and intelligence by highlighting the enduring and evolving nature of these alliances in covert activities and their implications for regional and global stability.

IRREGULAR WARFARE, COVERT ACTION, SERBIA