The role of artificial intelligence in nuclear crisis decision making: a complement, not a substitute/ Marcus Holmes and Nicholas J. Wheeler

This article explores the nuanced interplay between artificial intelligence (AI) and human decision making in the high-stakes arena of nuclear crisis management. We argue that AI, despite its lack of emotional intelligence and experiential learning, presents unique opportunities to enhance decision-makers’ ability to navigate the complexities of nuclear crises. By juxtaposing AI's data-driven insights with human intelligence's depth in emotional and creative processes, we illustrate the complementary roles each can play in fostering empathy, understanding, and, ultimately, security dilemma sensibility (SDS). Through theoretical exploration and thought experiments on historical crises such as the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Able Archer incident, we demonstrate AI's potential in mitigating misperceptions and facilitating informed, empathetic responses that acknowledge the fears and intentions of adversaries. However, we also highlight the inherent limitations and ethical considerations of over-relying on AI, stressing the irreplaceable value of human judgment and the need for a balanced approach that leverages the strengths of both AI and human intelligence. Our conclusion underscores the importance of integrating AI as a tool within a broader strategy of crisis management that prioritises trust-building and direct communication among decision-makers to navigate the delicate dynamics of international security and diplomacy effectively.