Utility-based predictions of military escalation: why experts forecasted Russia would not invade Ukraine/ Jonas J. Driedger and Mikhail Polianskii
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TextPublication details: 2023Subject(s): Online resources:
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Contemporary Security Policy, Vol 44, No 4, October 2023, page: 544-560Summary: When Russia amassed troops in the winter of 2021–2022, many analysts deemed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine unlikely. Surveying the expert literature, we establish that these arguments largely relied on utility-based reasoning: Analysts thought an invasion was improbable, as it would foreseeably entail massive costs for Russia, its people, and its regime. We show that this regnant expert opinion had not sufficiently accounted for the Russian regime’s tendencies to increasingly accept risks, coupled with an inadequate processing of information on Ukrainian and Western views and policies.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal Article | Mindef Library & Info Centre Journals | RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Not for loan |
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When Russia amassed troops in the winter of 2021–2022, many analysts deemed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine unlikely. Surveying the expert literature, we establish that these arguments largely relied on utility-based reasoning: Analysts thought an invasion was improbable, as it would foreseeably entail massive costs for Russia, its people, and its regime. We show that this regnant expert opinion had not sufficiently accounted for the Russian regime’s tendencies to increasingly accept risks, coupled with an inadequate processing of information on Ukrainian and Western views and policies.
GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTING, NEWARTICLS
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