PRC assertiveness in the South China Sea: measuring continuity and change, 1970-2015/ Andrew Chubb

By: Material type: TextTextPublication details: 2020Subject(s): Online resources: In: International Security Vol 45, No 3, Winter 2020/21, pp.79-121 (68)Summary: This article argues that understanding the dynamics of the South China Sea conflict depends on recognizing longer-term patterns of continuity and change in the PRC's behavior. In territorial and maritime disputes, lines of action introduced at one point in time have cumulative effects, creating the conditions for further changes in behavior in the future, and crucial decisions can take years and even decades to manifest.
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This article argues that understanding the dynamics of the South China Sea conflict depends on recognizing longer-term patterns of continuity and change in the PRC's behavior. In territorial and maritime disputes, lines of action introduced at one point in time have cumulative effects, creating the conditions for further changes in behavior in the future, and crucial decisions can take years and even decades to manifest.

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