Beyond pessimism: why the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons will not collapse/ Liviu Horovitz
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The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol.38 Nos.1-2 February 2015, pp.126-158 (98)Summary: This article quesions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evident on states' interests and interactions within the NPT's framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty's enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.
This article quesions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evident on states' interests and interactions within the NPT's framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty's enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.
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