A Russian bear in trouble, what comes next? consequences and lessons from Putin's invasion of Ukraine/
LEE Geunwook
A Russian bear in trouble, what comes next? consequences and lessons from Putin's invasion of Ukraine/ Geunwook Lee - 2022
Russia is losing its war in Ukraine as of January 2023. Then, what would happen in the world when a Russian bear in trouble? What would be consequences of the apparent failure of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Russia is likely to lose its semi-great power status out of its defeat and fall to be China's junior partner in great power politics. China's position will improve because Beijing will come to secure energy supply from Russia and access to Moscow's military technologies, not to mention to China's access to Russian market. The United States, in contrast, will be faced with two great power rivals and find it difficult to stay focused in strategic competition. North Korea is likely to be controlled rather than emboldened by China, but Beijing will take advantage of Pyongyang as its strategic pawn in its strategic design against Taipei and Washington in East Asia.
UKRAINE WAR
RUSSIA
CHINA
THE UNITED STATES
STRATEGIC COMPETITION--THUCYDIDES TRAP
A Russian bear in trouble, what comes next? consequences and lessons from Putin's invasion of Ukraine/ Geunwook Lee - 2022
Russia is losing its war in Ukraine as of January 2023. Then, what would happen in the world when a Russian bear in trouble? What would be consequences of the apparent failure of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Russia is likely to lose its semi-great power status out of its defeat and fall to be China's junior partner in great power politics. China's position will improve because Beijing will come to secure energy supply from Russia and access to Moscow's military technologies, not to mention to China's access to Russian market. The United States, in contrast, will be faced with two great power rivals and find it difficult to stay focused in strategic competition. North Korea is likely to be controlled rather than emboldened by China, but Beijing will take advantage of Pyongyang as its strategic pawn in its strategic design against Taipei and Washington in East Asia.
UKRAINE WAR
RUSSIA
CHINA
THE UNITED STATES
STRATEGIC COMPETITION--THUCYDIDES TRAP